A global chip shortage, prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic, is continuing to affect automakers around the world. As a result, many OEMs have had to delay new models and slow down production. However, there are positives to this challenge as it could force the industry to innovate in new ways.

Software could be one such solution and this isn't the first time manufacturers have looked to developers to solve a hardware problem. In 2014, Tesla announced a recall of 29,000 of its charging adapters over fire concerns. This wasn't a recall in the traditional sense, though, and Tesla was able to fix a problem with the charger's electrical resistance heating by rolling out an over-the-air (OTA) update to its vehicles.

Can an update solve a chip shortage?

Software-defined vehicle manufacturers are well placed to look for ways to solve the current chip shortage and, once again, Tesla is leading the charge. It's already exploring alternative chips and is rewriting its vehicle software to support that.

"We were able to substitute alternative chips, and then write the firmware in a matter of weeks," Musk said during an earnings call in July last year. "It's not just a matter of swapping out a chip; you also have to rewrite the software."

A new way of delivering OTA updates

Tesla's software mindset allows it to weather the challenges facing the automotive industry but all OEMs have the chance to learn from this. The level of technology in a car requires millions of lines of code and each OTA update needs additional storage on top of this. Reducing the memory needed for each update could reduce the pain of the current chip crisis for automakers.

This can be achieved with Line-of-Code OTA updates.

Legacy update solutions such as full-image updates or binary diff updates require creating dual partitions in the endpoint memory while also doubling the storage available. Using these methods, manufacturers update the software to the second partition so that, if it fails, it can revert to the previous version that's still stored on the chipset.

This not only requires double the amount of NAND chip memory to accommodate these updates but if an update fails, it could have a knock-on effect across other ECUs in a vehicle that may need to roll back two or three versions - something that's not possible using full-image or binary updates.

Line-of-Code updates, however, don't require this extra memory to ensure that the ECU is both updatable and fully fail-safe. Using this technology could ease some of the problems OEMs are facing from the current chip shortage - by requiring fewer flash memory banks while still balancing the need for safety and user experience.

This method writes the fully executable update file to the next free space on the flash memory without deleting previous versions. Not only does this method take up much less space than legacy updates but it means there's zero downtime for the user and, should an update fail, it's easy to revert back to a previous version.

It's clear that software has the chance to solve hardware problems but challenges such as the current chip shortage present new opportunities for innovation. Vehicle Software Intelligence and Line-of-Code updates may help ease the pain of a short-term issue but can also support OEMs in revenue generation, help them create an improved user experience, reduce costs, and offer full visibility into the co-dependencies present in a modern vehicle.

If you're interested in finding out more about Line-of-Code updates, take a look at our cost consideration guide for OTA updates.

Before software started to dominate vehicle production, the balance in the automotive ecosystem was clear and well known: Tier-1s supply parts, mechanics, hardware and software, whereas OEMs own the design, assembly and marketing. Today, and looking forward, as software is starting to supersede mechanics in vehicles, and the core of the vehicle is changing from internal combustion to electric, the balance in the automotive ecosystem is also changing.

The shakeup in roles does not necessarily mean some parties become obsolete, but rather that all parties have the opportunity to collaborate for mutual growth.

Let's take a look at trends in key players of the automotive ecosystem:

Chipset providers are showing signs of growing their offering from hardware only to include software and services. For example, Mobileye's acquisition of Moovit is a clear move to a full robotaxi service. Qualcomm's recent acquisition of Veoneer signals the next phase of their complete software and chip platform for driver-assistance systems.

Tier 1 suppliers are displaying leadership in software development and innovation to continuously bring value and skills to OEMs. Examples include Continental's purchase of Argus Cyber Security in order to strengthen and enhance its capabilities in automotive cyber security and LG's similar venture with the acquisition of Cybellum.

Aurora Labs recently collaborated with Strategy Insights to conduct an Automotive Software survey where we polled over 150 industry leaders for insights on trends in automotive software. Based on the results from this survey, OEMs are estimated to move between 10-25% of software development in-house by 2025. (See complete survey report for more details)

This shift is very logical - as software becomes a differentiator and an integral piece of the vehicle, car makers must have competencies and transparency into the code they deploy in their vehicles.

Car manufacturers can opt to move in two directions: the 'Apple' or 'Tesla' method of complete end-to-end vertical integration and control, or for a collaborative ecosystem. It is our belief that the industry will move towards the latter.

If we look at the mobile phone industry example, although Apple has shown tremendous success with its vertical integration strategy, other companies such as Samsung have also experienced great profits through a thriving ecosystem by utilizing Android operating systems and multiple hardware suppliers.

Based on the 2021 Automotive Software Survey, there is no decisive answer as to which player today has the most influence over software development, a trend that signals a period of upcoming changes.

Cooperation and collaboration within an ecosystem drive greater innovation, lowering of costs and increase in revenue. The automotive industry currently stands at the brink of such growth, which will be driven by all participants. The new mode of operation has room for each party to evolve and work in cooperation, rather than compete with each other.

Naturally, there may be a period of unrest during the transition to the new era, with each player in the ecosystem attempting to own a bigger piece of the value chain, but this is expected to settle as the new lines are drawn.

This evolution will require more than collaboration, but will also be driven by regulation and technological advancements. Standardization and validation throughout complex and interrelated systems are being worked on around the globe. And close to our hearts at Aurora Labs, AI-powered software intelligence technologies will be the enablers for transparency, evidence, authentication, testing and updating of systems supplied by different players in the ecosystem.

To learn more about trends in the automotive software industry, read the 2021 Automotive Software Survey Report.

What

As more innovation and regulation is software related, Stout's 2021 Automotive Defect & Recall Report is reporting a growth in software recalls and TSBs. This drives the question: Is it time to embrace a proactive approach to software quality management?

Why should you read this?

• We highlight the main trends from Stout's 2021 report
• We analyze how the trends will affect the industry as a whole
• We reflect on the industry disruptions caused by COVID-19
• The Stout report points out that OTA updates increase completion rates, and we suggest how we can raise this number even further.

Key Trends and Highlights

• The year 2020 was unique for the automotive industry in many ways. This exponential growth in technology has brought new capabilities to the automotive industry, though plant closures and global supply chain disruptions the COVID-19 pandemic caused contributed to the lowest volume of new vehicle sales since 2012. However, the number of unique recalls campaigns has nearly trebled in the past ten years. The number of vehicles affected by recalls remained close to peak levels through a tumultuous time for the industry.
• Meanwhile, the development and implementation of innovative and convenient OTA update solutions enable OEMs to prevent recalls, make updates convenient to complete for owners, increase completion rates and lower the total costs of the recalls both to OEMs and suppliers.

Report highlights:

• In a rapidly evolving industry, software defects can lead to significant risk exposure. By 2022, we expect most vehicles will be connected and controlled by software systems.
• The proportion of software-based defects increased for the fourth consecutive year.
• There are greater uncertainties for future recalls as complex safety-critical systems are integrated into new vehicle platforms.
• A decline in recall completion percentages, due in part to mobility restrictions and other industry disruptions related to COVID-19
• However, 2020 recalls utilizing OTA remedy delivery have achieved high completion percentages by most measures. Still, the disparity in completion progress in these recalls reveal that barriers to completion remain, namely, the more transparent the update to the user, the less the user is required to be a part of the process, and the higher the completion rate.
• Aurora Labs' Auto Update uses an additive update technology to write the OTA update file to the next free space on the ECU flash, removing the need for dual memory banks and enabling seamless and transparent software updates.
• According to the 2021 Automotive Software Survey, the ability to perform predictive maintenance on automotive software is a desired capability within the industry. Based on the survey, more than 93 percent of the respondents think the ability to predict software anomalies is important or very important.
• Aurora Labs' Auto Detect continuously monitors the ECU software for deviations in the functional behavior. Using AI algorithms, Auto Detect can predict which deviations can potentially lead to a system failure, enabling proactive software maintenance.

Even though the current recall rate of this industry is high, many are expecting it to dip. The report suggests that with the increasing number of OTA software updates, cars could soon be serviced remotely instead of recalled. The report also makes it clear that now would be a good time for those in the auto industry to rethink their approach to software updates and invest in solutions that can bring a software development process to the next level.

While doing a bit of research to write this blog, I came across an interesting thought, "In a nutshell, being proactive is the same thing as being reactive. The only difference is: you do the reacting ahead of time."

Auto manufacturers have raised OTA update solutions to the top rung of the technology ladder bringing the deployment of OTA update technology from a reactive afterthought to a proactive strategic play in the development of automotive software.

OTA - Proactive, not Reactive - Be Strategic

Strategically integrating a new generation of AI-based over-the-air (OTA) update technology into the software development toolchain enables the OTA solution to be proactive - and react ahead of time - by learning software behavior during the development process. This means, when the vehicle leaves the production line, the software is already being understood and anomalies can be acted on proactively based on data and learnings done early in the process.

OTA - Expanded Functionality

This leads to the second point about the strategic nature of OTA technology. Not only is the application of the technology "shifting left," and finding itself in the development toolchain, OTA technology solutions have also matured beyond their original intent. In addition to creating and deploying the update file, today's solutions can monitor, detect, understand and validate software behavior. Today's OTA solutions need to be more intelligent than the solutions that came into the automotive industry as a spinoff technology from the mobile phone industry. Today's solutions need to be developed for the vehicle - because the vehicle is a heck of a lot more complicated than a mobile phone and there is human life relying on the vehicle software intelligence embedded in today's cars.

OTA - Cost Consideration and Frequency

Putting detailed costs of delivering OTA updates has never been discussed in the aisles or on stage at MWC, ELIV, CES or the Detroit Auto Show. Mainly, because of the reasons discussed above -OTA updates were done infrequently, only as bug fixes, and only to the head unit and TCU. This is changing and the cost of OTA updates need to be looked at under a microscope. According to a recent Automotive Software Survey, with 140 respondents from the automotive industry - it is expected that moving forward, there will be, at least one update per quarter - updating features and functionalities in the entire car.

Costs to consider include:

- Cloud-to-vehicle communications and data transmission costs

- Endpoint update technology integration costs

- Endpoint update memory costs

- Cloud storage costs

(To learn more, download the Cost Consideration Guide with Simulator.)

OTA - Money Maker

Here is where it gets really interesting and where it becomes blatantly clear that auto OEMs need strategic and proactive over-the-air update plans. Not only is OTA update technology shifting left, delivering more functionality and being leveraged more often for more ECUs - it is also on the path of becoming a major revenue stream for auto manufacturers. Based on the survey mentioned above, more than one-fifth of industry experts expect software sales to account for at least ten percent of carmakers' sales as early as 2027

PROACTIVE ANOMALY DETECTION CRUCIAL FOR SOFTWARE SECURITY IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

• More than one-fifth of industry experts expect software sales to account for at least ten percent of carmakers' sales as early as 2027
• More than half (53%) of respondents expect setback for electric offensive due to semiconductor shortage
• 45% of respondents expect each connected vehicle to receive up to six OTA updates per year from 2025 onwards

Aurora Labs, provider of self-healing software for connected, autonomous, and electric vehicles announces the results of its annual Automotive Software Survey conducted together with the leading market research and consulting firm Strategy Analytics. For the survey, 140 international experts from the automotive and supplier industry as well as the software sector were surveyed. The participants work for European, American and Asian organizations.

Registration of electric vehicles is on the rise. However, the mass adoption of electric vehicles is threatened with a setback. 53% of the industry experts surveyed by Strategy Analytics and Aurora Labs expect the current semiconductor shortage to delay electric vehicle programs by at least six months. 15% of respondents even expect delays of one to two years.

INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION: CARMAKERS BECOME SOFTWARE-BASED ORGANIZATIONS

The Automotive Software Survey 2021 also shows how business models in the automotive industry are changing. 56% of the respondents assume that car manufacturers will already generate more than five percent of their turnover in 2027 through the sale of software that is rolled-out to vehicles via OTA updates. 21% of the experts even assume that software sales will already account for more than ten percent of carmakers' turnover in 2027. Car manufacturers must therefore transform themselves into software-based organizations considering the increasing revenue potential in the sale of software functions.

45% of respondents believe that each connected vehicle will receive two to six OTA updates in 2025. 15% of the participants even expect up to 24 OTA updates per year. The experts thus expect a significant increase in annual wireless software updates. This illustrates the increasing demand for cost-effective solutions for OTA updates in the automotive industry. As a recent analysis by Aurora Labs and the consultancy Guidehouse shows, automotive manufacturers can save nearly $100 million annually in data transmission costs by using smaller delta files for updates. In addition to the cost of OTA updates, security and redundancy of the solution are most important to 34% of the experts surveyed, as well as a seamless user experience by performing updates without downtime for 26%.

PROACTIVE ANOMALY DETECTION ENSURES SOFTWARE QUALITY

66% of the industry experts surveyed expect that by 2027 at the latest, more than one million vehicles per year will be produced worldwide that have powerful E/E architectures. This shows how relevant the UNECE's WP.29 requirements are for regulating software updates to ensure vehicle safety. The catalogue of regulations stipulates in which cases vehicles need a new type approval after receiving a software update. According to the survey by Strategy Analytics and Aurora Labs, only 14% of experts currently assume that the automotive industry will be able to meet the WP.29 requirements as early as 2022. 37% are in favor of postponing the implementation of the regulations until 2024.

Aurora Labs and Strategy Analytics also wanted to find out in their survey how software quality management is faring in the automotive industry. 47% of the experts surveyed said that it is difficult to understand the mutual relationships between vehicle control units. This can be remedied by solutions that use artificial intelligence and machine learning to understand the interdependencies between software systems and thus proactively detect software anomalies. Industry experts agree that these technologies are urgently needed: 93% of respondents believe that it is important or very important to proactively fix software anomalies after vehicle delivery, rather than just reacting to them to avoid recalls.

To read the full 2021 Automotive Software Survey report, please click here

To read the 2020 Automotive Software Survey report, please click here

If you follow any of our social media channels, you know that OTA Update costs can reach an astonishing $2.72 BILLION! (Based on the recent GuideHouse Insights study).

After a couple of months analyzing the costs drivers, led by update file size, including data transmission, cloud storage and dual bank memory costs, we tried to put ourselves in the (big) shoes of automotive R&D teams and ask two important questions:

1. If time is money - then what other actions are the R&D teams tasked with that are taking them away from their core task of innovating?
2. Can technology be the accountant and leave the R&D teams to be the innovators?

Only you can really answer these questions, but here are two important OTA-update costs drivers and my thoughts on how you can remove these barriers for your R&D teams.

Cost driver: delta file creation in the world of CI/CD

The use of Continuous Integration/Continuous Deployment (CI/CD) development toolchains such as Jenkins are enabling more frequent software releases that can be quarterly or even monthly.

Binary OTA update solutions compare binary files at the end of the development cycle to identify differences between source and target software versions. This is a cumbersome and costly method that is best suited for waterfall development and does not suit the speed required in CI/CD. In addition, when issues are discovered, tracing them back to the source and ensuring that any dependent software modules haven't been impacted can be time-consuming and costly in terms of engineering resources.

Suggested mitigation: adopt an OTA solution that seamlessly integrates into the toolchain, reducing the integration complexity and cost

The CI/CD environment requires an OTA update file generation technology that seamlessly integrates into the toolchain, reducing the overall complexity and cost. Integration into the development toolchain will enable it to automatically and continuously create an update file every time a new software version is created, greatly simplifying the update file creation process. In addition to the benefit of seamless integration, the update technology will be comparing differences in the lines-of-code leading to much smaller update files than a binary image diff comparison to reduce the cost of storing and transmitting the update files.

Cost driver: verification & documentation for homologation and regulatory bodies

Before any software is deployed to a vehicle, it must go through precise and demanding quality verification procedures that include clear documentation and evidence of the changes in the software code, code functionality and the influence the code has on other parts of the vehicle systems. Validation of the effect of the software changes on the entire automotive E/E system and evidence of such is a requirement in the newly adopted UNECE WP.29 regulations. This is a time-consuming and often a manual process, but one that is necessary for certification, regulation, warranty and audits.

Suggested mitigation: automate documentation process as an integral step of the update procedures

Line-Of-Code Intelligence technology automatically creates the update file by analyzing changes to the software functionality connections and behaviour. In this manner, in addition to creating an update file, the Line-Of-Code Intelligence technology also identifies, documents and provides evidence in a standard language of what has and has not changed between software versions and how these changes have affected regulated vehicle functionality. This information greatly streamlines documentation and homologation procedures. Further, as the Line-Of-Code update files are in the same standard file format as the rest of the automotive software, they will seamlessly fit with the existing documentation processes, thereby reducing additional unwanted procedural costs.

I would love to hear your thoughts and opinions on these suggestions, on the role of automotive developers, and OTA update costs - please write to us to start a conversation anytime!

Virtually every vehicle that is put out into the market is equipped with almost a hundred ECUs, millions of lines of code, and a slew of technical capabilities. These innovations are making cars around the world more secure and drastically improving the user experience.

Data connectivity is fueling vehicle electrification and automation and is the force that drives value for both OEMs and drivers. Data enables infotainment services including location intelligence and media, but also remote diagnostics, EV services, safety and emergency services, and predictive maintenance. My favorite connected car data use case is Innovative Insurance as suggested by otonomo - enabling models such as pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) and pay-how-you-drive (PHYD) usage-based insurance.

The ability to deliver Over-the-Air Updates is arguably one of the most important benefits of connected vehicles. Tesla uses Over-the-Air updates to add functionality ranging from in-car driver monitoring to automated seat heaters! Impressingly, Xpeng a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle company has cumulatively released 23 OTA updates for G3 and P7 users over a 15 month period, with 134 new functions added and 2,326 functions optimized for a total of 380,000 updates.

As data transmission becomes crucial to recognizing the in-vehicle technology benefits, the question arises: how much data does each vehicle require and what are the costs?

According to a new Guidehouse Insights report, the cost of data transmission for a 10-million vehicle fleet can reach over 20 PB of data and cost over $1 Billion, every year!

If we look at an individual ECU for example, for an in-vehicle infotainment system (IVI) update, the file size can be 500MB per vehicle, per update, on average. BMW recently updated 1 million vehicles’ IVI systems with file sizes ranging from 0.8GB to 1.2GB. Smaller ECU, such as seat memory or ambient lighting, running AutoSAR can have file sizes from 0.4MB to 2MB. For an average of one update every quarter and millions of vehicles in a fleet, the data transmission costs can quickly become astronomical.

Naturally, a fleet of millions of vehicles will be spread globally - adding another layer of complexity to the calculations: the costs of data around the world.

Based on an analysis by Spendemont, data costs per country can vary by over 99%! The country with the steepest cost of mobile data is Zimbabwe where 1GB can cost up to $75.20, and the country with the lowest costs is India where 1GB will cost a mere $0.26.

The average price of 1 GB of mobile data worldwide is $8.53. Here's a comparison of select countries:

Check out the very cool interactive map on Spendemon for more details.

With 5G cellular networks now being rolled out, it is possible that the cost of cellular data transmissions will come down however this will likely be counterbalanced by the number of OTA updates performed per vehicle each year as vehicle development becomes more agile and  CI/CD  methodologies are adopted.

But there is hope. OTA updates can become more frequent and stable while reducing costs by 98% thanks to Aurora Labs' Line-of-Code update technologies.

Our update files, built on intimate knowledge of the lines-of-code, their changes, dependencies and behavior, reduce file sizes from 500 MB down to 15MB and drop the projected costs from over a billion to just over $30 million. Try our OTA Update Cost Simulator to see and compare what data costs can be, based on a few factors such as file size, number of ECUs and fleet size.

WHAT:

With software-related recalls on the rise, is it time to embrace predictive software maintenance?

WHY you should read this:

• We highlight the main trends from Stout's 2020 report
• We explore the significance of these trends: Software-related recalls and OTA updates
• We dig deeper and explore what these trends mean for the industry
• We question whether recalls are necessary or whether cars could be serviced remotely

Stout's 2020 Automotive Defect and Recall Report got us thinking about one of Elon Musk's tweets from 2013. In response to Tesla having to recall nearly 30,000 of its sedans because of a fire risk caused by the vehicle's charging equipment overheating, Musk tweeted: "The word "recall" needs to be recalled". And in this case, that's just what Tesla did by offering an over-the-air (OTA) software update instead of actually recalling the faulty vehicles. In many ways, this tweet was a watershed moment for the industry. And this idea of software-related recalls is echoed strongly in the latest Stout report.

As we find ourselves at the beginning of the new year, we thought it would be helpful to reflect on some of the main trends highlighted in Stout's 2020 report. Because reports like this set the stage for what's to come and in some senses hint at the bigger issues OEMs and suppliers may be forced to grapple within the coming year. The report highlights a trend we all know isn't going anywhere anytime soon and something that a relentless maverick and visionary like Musk already knew in 2013: That software-related innovation is going to play an increasingly important role in new automotive functionality, and that software-related recalls will not be far behind. The report clearly shows this trend.

But all this got us thinking: Could there be a better, more efficient way of dealing with software recalls? Perhaps it's time to embrace predictive software maintenance.

Change is in the Air: Key Trends and Highlights

In many ways Stout's 2020 Automotive Defect and Recall Report highlights what we already know to be true: Software-related recalls are on the increase.

The report highlights the fact that:

• In 2019 we saw a significant increase in the number of software-related defects when compared to previous years: There was a ~ 10% increase in software-related defects from 2018 to 2019
• Software-related recalls reached record numbers in 2019 with 2 of the largest recalls of the year (including a safety recall) involving software
• An estimated 6.5 million vehicles that were recalled for electronic component defects received software remedies, making 2019 the year with the greatest number of software-based campaigns

Interestingly, the report also hints at the fact that while more and more manufacturers are warming up to the idea of OTA updates, they still aren't widely used (for the entire vehicle). We predict that this is going to change. In fact, from conversations we've had with several of our clients and announcements from various car manufacturers, we know this is changing. We predict that full-vehicle OTA updates will become increasingly popular as more and more manufacturers embrace the technology. And while this innovation will enable remote repair and may even lessen the load when it comes to recalls, we shouldn't stop here. We shouldn't just be striving to ease the load and make recalls more efficient but rather focusing on predictive software maintenance. This means being able to predict which software is causing the issue before it causes the vehicle to fail, and using OTA updates, we'll be able to fix it before any harm is caused.

Predictive Software Maintenance to the Rescue

The Stout report highlights the increase in software-related recalls and hints at the role OTA updates will come to play. But we'd argue it doesn't go far enough. Because of innovations like OTA updates, we see the emergence of a powerful trend: Predictive software maintenance. But what does that really mean? And what will this mean for the automotive industry?

Essentially, predictive software maintenance is a shift away from the tried and trusted reactive approach which only fixes problems after they have caused what often turn out to be catastrophic failures. This is unplanned, reactive maintenance and is how things have always been done (until now). On the other hand, predictive maintenance relies on real-time data and machine learning algorithms to detect anomalies and possible defects before they need fixing. Such an approach anticipates problems before they occur, making it more efficient and cost-effective.

According to our 2020 Automotive Software Survey, the ability to perform predictive maintenance on automotive software is a desired capability within the industry. Based on the survey, more than 88 percent of the 200 respondents think the ability to predict software anomalies is important or very important.

An example of predictive maintenance is a vehicle's brakes which tend to wear slowly over time. The garage does not wait for the brakes to fail before replacing the brake pads, but instead, the garage mechanic will use his experience to predict when they will fail and will suggest to replace them in advance. Line-Of-Code Behavior technology does the same for the vehicle software.

Line-Of-Code Behavior technology enables manufacturers to be proactive rather than reactive to software failures, enabling pre-error detection. This technology leverages machine learning algorithms to monitor the behaviour of the software functions over time and predicts when the software will fail. In addition, it detects the exact lines of code causing the problem, shortening the error-resolution time and giving the manufacturers the necessary time to fix, test and certify the software before it is released. Using OTA updates the new software can then be pushed to the vehicles seamlessly before the software has failed in the field, paving the way for a seamless continuous improvement process.

Conclusion

There are many takeaways from Stout's 2020 Automotive Defect & Recall Report. What stood out most for us was the significant uptick in software-related recalls. The report also hints at the increasing reliance on OTA updates. This shines a light on where the industry is headed. It also makes it clear that with the right technology and innovation, we could soon be servicing cars remotely instead of recalling them. For an industry so focused on recalls, this is a major wake up call and an opportunity to do better.

Learn more about our approach to predictive software maintenance.

The 2020 Automotive Software Survey Report, written by Ian Riches from Strategy Analytics and Roger Ordman from Aurora Labs, is now online!

Our 2020 Automotive Software Survey shows more evidence of the transformation happening in the automotive industry. Unique to this report, however, is the focus on two main vectors of transformation: more centralised vehicle architectures and more software developed in-house by the automotive OEM.

There are significant concerns as to how quickly the industry is moving and whether car manufacturers own the required skills. The function of OTA updates is crucial. Cost control and complexity will be essential to ensure that customers stay satisfied with their vehicles throughout their lifecycle.

The key conclusions of the 2020 Automotive Software Survey are as follows:

• There was wide agreement that OEMs will develop more software in-house, but only a lukewarm affirmation that they possessed the required skills to do so.
• This widely agreed trend is at odds with the current status quo, with the most popular answer to how many software suppliers there are to a current vehicle being 'Over 50'.
• Domain-based architectures are coming - but most saw volume deployment in MY2027 or later.

It is clear that the importance of software is growing for the automotive industry and evolving from an enabler for the hardware, to become key differentiating features. The vehicle manufacturers are being challenged to meet the resource requirements for software to become a strategic component of the vehicle and the automotive industry.

• Multiple aspects of ensuring software quality are seen as difficult and/or getting more difficult, with a strong expressed preference for the ability to have insight into the behavior of the software functions during the development process as well as to be able to predict software anomalies.
• There was overwhelming agreement that OTA updates bring far more than just the ability to roll-out bug fixes. This opinion was strengthened by the fact that 83% of respondents envisaged at least two OTA updates per vehicle per year, with one-in-six (17%) predicted more than 24 updates a year - and so we're clearly looking to see more than bug fixes implemented.
• It is clear that the OTA business will be on a very steep growth curve in the coming years. Market needs (a vehicle which continues to improve post-factory), OEM requirements (controlling the spiraling cost of physical recalls) and legislation frameworks are all now aligning.

The industry is acknowledging that software quality is no longer a single stage of the vehicle development process. Software quality is expected to be maintained throughout the vehicle's lifecycle and the vehicle manufacturers are expected to take a more proactive approach towards maintaining vehicle software quality.

To read the full 2020 Automotive Software Survey report with over 20 engaging graphs, please click here

Have you heard? Over-the-Air (OTA) Update systems for automotive software are now being regulated. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's (UNECE) World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations has adopted new regulations to manage cyber risks and provide safe and secure software updates for the more than 300 million lines of automotive software code expected to be in passenger cars, vans, trucks and buses by 2030.

Read on for a quick overview of the main points in the UNECE document WP.29 and how Aurora Labs' in-vehicle software solutions enable car manufacturers to comply with the new OTA regulations and their effect on vehicle type approval.

The adopted regulation outlines the requirements and processes needed to assure that the software update management system (SUMS) guarantees safe, secure and reliable OTA updates. The regulation covers Safety, Security and Documentation. Given the widespread use of UN regulations in the automotive sector around the world, the broad adoption of these regulations is expected in January, 2021, among and beyond the 54 Contracting Parties/countries.

The UNECE press release announcing the adoption of the regulations notes that certain regions and countries have already committed to applying the regulations. Japan has indicated that it plans to apply these regulations upon entry into force starting January 2021 and in the European Union the new regulations will be mandatory for all vehicles produced starting July, 2024.

In terms of safety, specific document details include verification of the vehicle resources prior to commencing the update, and the ability to restore software to a previous version in case an over-the-air update failed or was interrupted. In addition, there are recommendations for how to handle software interdependencies, compatibility of software updates, and type approvals.

To comply with the security recommendations, an auto manufacturer needs to prove that software manipulation and compromise can be prevented, and software functionality, authenticity, integrity can be verified and validated.

WP.29 also lists required documentation covering:

• Processes
• Device and software configuration
• Software versions
• Target vehicles
• Purpose of an OTA update, what systems the update affects, type approval details and confirmation that the software update is conducted safely and securely

The regulation discusses the effect an OTA update may have on type approved functionality in the vehicle. Specifically, sections 7.1.1.9 and 8.1 refer to the situation when an update has an effect on a previous type approved vehicle function.

The change to the component or system resulting from the update needs to be documented and evidence needs to be given on the direct effect of the change on the type approved function and any connected/dependant type approved systems. The changes may then be deemed by the testing authority to require one of the following three outcomes to the type approval certificate of conformity (CoC):

1. Revision - the modifications do not affect the performance of the type approved function
2. Extension - the changes are substantial enough to require an extension to the type approval document (often a costly process)
3. Amendment - the changes have a direct effect on the performance of type approved functionality and will require additional testing (and documentation) for an amended type approval

Aurora Labs' Self-Healing Software solutions, specifically Auto Update and Auto Validate, are key for automotive manufacturers to effectively comply with the new requirements defined by the UNECE to keep the Software Update Management System safe and secure.

Auto Update is the industry's only OTA solution that updates all ECUs from bumper to bumper regardless of component resources, it uses standard protocols, updates with zero downtime, and does this all without requiring dual memory or a software client to be integrated into every ECU in the vehicle.

Only Aurora Labs' Auto Validate provides standardized and documented evidence of the changes made within a software function and the effects the change has on the dependent software functions, greatly reducing the time and cost involved to maintain Whole Vehicle Type Approval (WVTA) throughout the vehicle's lifecycle.

As more and more software enters the vehicle, from several different sources including the OEM itself, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers and the open source community, the need to truly understand software behavior is paramount to the delivery of vehicles to be deemed certified and road worthy. Aurora Labs is at the heart of this fascinating time in the automotive industry and well positioned to help software-driven automotive manufacturers succeed.